De volta à Líbia

 

Libya-ISIS-2016

crédito: Wikimedia Commons, NordNordWest

Um artigo de Tom Engelhardt sobre a dificuldade que os EUA têm de se demarcar dos conflitos que iniciaram ou nos quais se viram de alguma forma envolvidos fez-me dar uma vista de olhos ao que se tem escrito no The New York Times sobre a Líbia.

A pesquisa foi breve e cingi-me a 2016.

Pentagon Has Plan to Cripple ISIS in Libya With Air Barrage – 8 Mar – But the plan is not being actively considered, at least for now, as the U.S. presses ahead with diplomatic efforts inside Libya.
Tunisian Clash Spreads Fear That Libyan War Is Spilling Over – 7 Mar – At least 54 people were killed on Monday as militants stormed a Tunisian town near the border
Tripoli, a Tense and Listless City With Gunmen and a Well-Stocked Hugo Boss Outlet –6 Mar – As conflict rages elsewhere in Libya, a precarious order holds in the capital, as heavily armed militias and politicians, nominally allied, vie for control.
Italian Hostages of ISIS in Libya Are Freed, but 2 Others Are Feared Dead – 4 Mar -Filippo Calcagno and Gino Pollicardo were released, but two other Italians captured with them, Fausto Piani and Salvatore Failla, were said to have most likely been killed.
In Their Own Words: The Libya Tragedy – 27 Fev – Architects of the Libyan intervention lament its aftermath
A New Libya, With ‘Very Little Time Left’ – 27 Fev – The fall of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi seemed to vindicate Hillary Clinton. Then militias refused to disarm, neighbors fanned a civil war, and the Islamic State found refuge.
Hillary Clinton, ‘Smart Power’ and a Dictator’s Fall – 27 Fev – The president was wary. The secretary of state was persuasive. But the ouster of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi left Libya a failed state and a terrorist haven.
Hillary Clinton’s Legacy in Libya – 27 Fev – As the secretary of state in 2011, Hillary Clinton pressed the Obama administration to intervene militarily in Libya, with consequences that have gone far beyond the fall of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.
Assessing the Shifting Military and Political Calculus in Libya – 24 Fev – A breakthrough in its tangled civil war, particularly in war-ravaged Benghazi, thrust Libya back into the headlines this week.
A Radical Idea to Rebuild a Shattered Libya: Restore the Monarchy – 24 Fev – After years of turmoil and frustration with the United Nations peace process, some suggest that a king can rescue the country.
Italy: American Drones to Get Base, Official Says – 22 Fev – Italy has agreed to allow American armed drones to take off from an air base in Sicily to fight Islamic State extremists in Libya.
U.S. Scrambles to Contain Growing ISIS Threat in Libya – 21 Fev – As U.S. intelligence agencies say the number of Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria has dropped, the group’s ranks in Libya have roughly doubled.
Serbian Hostages Killed in U.S. Airstrikes Against ISIS in Libya – 20 Fev – The deaths of two Serbian Embassy employees drew protests from Serbia and raised questions about the American intelligence that led to the strikes.
Libya: America’s First, and Latest, Target  – 19 Fev – The United States has a longer history of military intervention in what is now Libya than in any other country, dating from the Jefferson administration and America’s first foreign war.
U.S. Bombing in Libya Reveals Limits of Strategy Against ISIS – 19 Fev – The strikes, which Western officials said targeted a senior operative linked to attacks in Tunisia, highlighted a growing gap in American military and diplomatic efforts.
U.S. Expands Restrictions on Visa-Waiver Program for Visitors – 18 Fev – People who have visited Libya, Somalia and Yemen in the past five years are not eligible to enter the United States without a visa, the new rules say.
Obama Is Pressed to Open Military Front Against ISIS in Libya – 4 Fev – The number of Islamic State fighters in Libya has grown to between 5,000 and 6,500, Pentagon officials said, more than double the estimate of last fall.
John Kerry on Coalition Efforts in Libya – 2 Fev – Secretary of State John Kerry said Libya was “on the brink of getting a government of national unity,” and re-emphasized the importance of coalition in the fight against ISIS.
Anti-ISIS Coalition to Intensify Efforts, John Kerry Says – 2 Fev – The secretary of state said the formation of a national unity government in Libya would prevent the Islamic State from seizing control of the country.
Libyan Lawmakers Reject U.N.-Backed Unity Government – 25 Jan – The internationally recognized Parliament voted down a proposed 32-member cabinet in a blow to international efforts to help form a unified government.
Libya: Parliament Rejects Cabinet Plan – 25 Jan – Lawmakers in Libya overwhelmingly rejected a proposed United Nations-backed unity cabinet on Monday, dealing a blow to diplomatic efforts.
U.S. and Allies Weigh Military Action Against ISIS in Libya – 22 Jan – A decision on how to thwart the Islamic State’s beachhead in Libya could come very soon, Obama administration officials said this week.
Libya Nominates 32 Cabinet Members for a Unity Government – 19 Jan – Despite a step forward in a process aimed at bringing together the country’s warring parties, the formation of a single government still faces significant hurdles.
In Libya, U.S. Courts Unreliable Allies to Counter ISIS – 18 Jan – To stop the advance of the Islamic State’s potent Libyan branch, the United States and its allies have sought potential ground forces in a patchwork of militias.
Weary of Chaos, Factions in Libya Consider Peace – 12 Jan – Four years after Libya’s revolution, warring factions in Misurata have taken steps toward peace that could help lift the country out of war.
Truck Bomb Kills at Least 65 at Libya Training Camp – 7 Jan – There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombing in the western coastal town of Zlitan, one of the deadliest in the country in recent memory.
Oil Storage Tanks Burn After ISIS Attacks Ports – 6 Jan – A spokesman for the Petroleum Facilities Guards said at least nine guards and 30 militants had been killed.
Islamic State Attacks Oil Port – 04 Jan – Islamic State militants attempted to capture an oil port along Libya’s coast, in fighting that left at least seven people dead and set fire to a storage tank of crude oil.
Jihadists Deepen Collaboration in North Africa – 1 Jan – The active coordination is turning one of the most inhospitable territories on earth into a complex security challenge for African and global forces.

No artigo de 4 de Fevereiro escreve-se que Obama está a ser pressionado para abrir uma frente militar contra o ISIS na Líbia. No de 8 de Março pode ler-se que a administração preferiria uma iniciativa diplomática conducente à formação de um governo de unidade nacional: “The Pentagon has presented the White House with the most detailed set of military options yet for attacking the growing Islamic State threat in Libya, including a range of potential airstrikes against training camps, command centers, munitions depots and other militant targets.” (…)  “But the plan is not being actively considered, at least for now, while the Obama administration presses ahead with a diplomatic initiative to form a unity government from rival factions inside Libya“.

Há dois governos na Líbia. Um governo “moderadamente islamita” no oeste, em Tripoli, e outro no leste, em Tobruk. Este é secular e reconhecido internacionalmente, mas é também apoiado por alguns grupos salafistas. Há dois parlamentos e cada governo tem o apoio de um sem número de milícias. Algures no meio, na longa costa líbia, mais propriamente em Sirte, está o Estado Islâmico, liderado por quadros provenientes da Síria e do Iraque. Continua a recrutar seguidores na região e procura campos de petróleo que financiem a sua expansão. O Ocidente está alarmado com estes desenvolvimentos e pretende intervir militarmente. Já estão no terreno forças especiais de vários países. Ambos os governos são avessos à intervenção externa. Não obstante, Alemanha, França, Itália, Reino Unido, EUA e UE apoiam a ideia de um governo imposto pela ONU, à revelia de qualquer voto de confiança do parlamento de Tobruk. Este terceiro governo reclamou o poder e instou as instituições estatais líbias, incluindo o Banco Central e a Corporação Nacional do Petróleo, a demarcarem-se dos executivos de Tobruk e Tripoli, e o Conselho de Segurança apelou aos estados membros para que reconheçam o governo de Skhirat, liderado por Fayaz Sirraj, e que terminem os contactos com aqueles.

Esta solução de um governo no exílio é problemática, desde logo porque não foi sufragado eleitoralmente. Mas não só. Um executivo imposto, rotulado de unidade nacional, poderá ter por missão “apelar” à intervenção estrangeira e limitar-se a confirmar tudo o que actores estatais externos vierem a fazer. Será eventualmente considerado um governo fantoche pelos parlamentos de Tobruk e Tripoli e dificilmente será aceite pelas milícias e pelo povo. Haverá lições a extrair da história recente do Iraque, onde um governo imposto deu causa à insurgência que permitiu a criação e desenvolvimento da AQI, Al-Qaeda no Iraque, o ISIS de hoje, que poderá ser novamente beneficiado com o ingresso de mais líbios e estrangeiros nas suas fileiras.

MC

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Uma resposta a De volta à Líbia

  1. Felipe Luis P. Paulo diz:

    Está mais que claro que os grupos terroristas ligados ao ISIS só conseguem se expandir em estados falidos e se governo central com pleno controle do próprio território. Vide Síria, Líbia e Iraque.
    Acredito que uma nova intervenção da OTAN apenas pioraria a situação, afinal ideias terroristas não se destroem com bombas. A solução seria um governo de unidade nacional líbio.

    Gostar

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